‘False face must hide what the
false heart doth know’
Macbeth Act One, scene seven
In my day job as a Visiting Fellow at the Centre for
Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, I have just co-authored with Danielle Venn
an analysis of the implications of the recent budget for Indigenous Australians
(link
here). I won’t duplicate much of that analysis here, (and recommend readers
have a look at it) but do wish to focus briefly on the ways in which the Government
seeks to frame its narrative.
In contrast to established practice ten or fifteen years
ago, there is no Budget Paper which pulls together all the Indigenous related
measures. This may reflect the gradual transition away from Indigenous specific
expenditures (currently less than one fifth of all government expenditure on Indigenous
citizens), but it seems to me to relate as much to a desire by government to
minimise transparency around the overall impact of its budget on Indigenous interests.
A similar process has occurred in relation to the former Budget Paper on International
Development Assistance.
In a world where the overarching framework for Indigenous
policy is seen by most citizens as Closing the Gap, where Governments across
the political spectrum have signed up to utilising the framework, and where
progress in meeting the targets can be characterised as extremely modest, there
would be merit in linking funding allocation to the Closing the Gap targets.
See a recent CAEPR paper on the Closing the Gap refresh process for more
discussion on this issue (link
here).
For better or worse, the current Government is not prepared
to do this (with the exception of the Health budget allocations which are
guided at least notionally by an implementation plan linked to Closing the Gap),
which raises two questions:
·
what are the actual overarching priorities it
is pursuing through the budget process, and
·
what are the drivers for the decisions which are
taken?
The answers to these questions are entirely opaque. It is
far from clear that there is any overarching framework guiding budget
allocations. Of course, funding is not everything, and merely listing the allocation
of funding says nothing about the effectiveness of those expenditures. But governments
make much of their budget policies in other areas of public policy, so we ought
not to dismiss the effect of funding allocations a sign or signal of government
policy intentions in Indigenous affairs. In other words, as in most areas of
public policy, actions speak louder than words.
In the absence of a clearly articulated overarching priority
setting framework for Government funding allocations, there are a number of
potential hypotheses which might explain the Government’s approach to Indigenous
funding:
- · Indigenous funding may be the result of essentially ad hoc bids from Indigenous interests which manage to capture ministers’ attention and appear to be worth supporting;
- · Indigenous funding may be the result of pork barrelling in key electorates designed to make local members and senators look good in the eyes of potential voters;
- · Indigenous funding may be the result of ideological framing of policy opportunities designed to send signals to the Government’s more influential (and potentially more extreme) supporters; and / or
- · Indigenous funding may be the residue after all other key policy and political interests have been addressed by the government’s budget decision making process.
I don’t propose to assess the
potential validity of these hypotheses here, but merely note that the budget outcomes
when looked at holistically (as in the CAEPR analysis referenced above) are not
inconsistent with one or more of these hypotheses.
This then raises a further
issue: were a Government to adopt an approach based on one or more of these
hypotheses, what would its budget narrative look like in relation to Indigenous
policy?
The answer, I venture to
suggest, would be that the narrative would look very similar to the narrative
the Government has promulgated following the most recent budget. Again, the
narrative in the health portfolio is an exception.
The Minister for Indigenous
affairs issued two media releases, one on 8 May (link
here) and the other on 9 May (link
here). Taken together, they seek to portray an impression of significant
budget allocations listing multi-billion dollar allocations in the Indigenous Advancement
Strategy and referencing billion dollar amounts in relation to the Land Fund
and the Indigenous Procurement Policy whereas in fact these figures have no
relationship to the allocations included in the Budget papers and the Appropriation
Acts. While all governments spin their narrative to place their decisions in
the best light, there is a line where spin crosses over into factual inaccuracy
and indeed invention.
The Minister’s 8 May media release
begins with the words: ‘This year’s budget includes $5 billion in investment through
the Indigenous Advancement Strategy…’. In fact, as the PMC website points out (link
here), the $5 billion was allocated in the 2015-16 budget for four years,
and thus there is only around $1.2 billion available for the coming year and
this was not a decision taken in this budget. Similarly, there is no new budget
measures related to the Land Fund nor the Indigenous Procurement Strategy, notwithstanding
both issues were highlighted in the Minister media releases. Finally, the
Minister appears to have invented the reference to an $800 billion increase in
health expenditures in his 9 May media release, as this figure is not mentioned
in the budget papers and nor is it mentioned in the Health Minister’s media
release.
My point is not to merely identify
some ‘gotcha’ moments, but to join the dots between a misleading and inaccurate
political narrative and its necessity in circumstances where the Government has
no coherent or effective policy strategy or framework.
The risks for both Indigenous Australians,
but also for the Australian community generally, is that the implicit assumptions
that government is working diligently and largely effectively to address Indigenous
disadvantage is reinforced by the Government’s narrative. I termed this a ‘complacency
effect’ in my submission to the Closing the Gap refresh process (included in
the CAEPR paper referenced above). When problems or challenges inevitably emerge
because the budget reality does not match the budget narrative, the likelihood
that Indigenous Australians will be blamed or will blame themselves is
amplified. Governments who mislead the community about the efforts they are
making in this areas are not just failing to ‘close the gap’, but are actually
contributing to circumstances which will eventually lead to tangible harm in
ways which may not always be visible to the community at large, but are nonetheless
hugely significant for those affected.
For example, the Treasure blithely
claimed in the only reference to Indigenous citizens in his budget night speech
that ‘Indigenous Australians also benefit from our $550 million commitment [over five
years] to address remote housing needs in the Northern Territory’. However, the
reality is that the Government took a conscious decision to reduce its
longstanding contribution to addressing the extraordinary outstanding needs in
remote housing by $2.15 billion over five years. It makes no policy sense, and it
will not assist in Closing the Gap. In fact, it will widen the gap, at least in
remote Australia.
The real story of the recent budget
for Indigenous Australians is that the Government has no coherent budget strategy,
no overarching policy framework, and as a result, is forced to resort to a
flawed policy narrative. While the budget itself represents a backward step for
Indigenous interests, the Government’s narrative also has seriously adverse
implications for Indigenous Australians. It engenders complacency when what is
required is a sense of purpose and urgency.