Indigenous demographic change: seven broad policy implications

  

From the Australian Bureau of Statistics (link here):

Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population has reached 984,000 or 3.8 per cent of the total Australian population, according to the latest population figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Demography Director Emily Walter said that over the five years to June 2021, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population increased by 23.2 per cent, or 185,600 people.

"This is higher than the 5.5 per cent increase for the non-Indigenous population over the same period" said Ms Walter. “We have seen similar increases in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population between past Censuses, and they are partly explained by changing identification over time.”

While Victoria was the fastest growing state or territory for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait population with an increase of 36.2 per cent, it remains the jurisdiction with the lowest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (1.2 per cent). The Northern Territory had the highest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people relative to its total population size (30.8 per cent).

New South Wales had the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population (339,500 people), followed by Queensland (273,200 people) and Western Australia (120,000 people). These three states comprised almost three-quarters of the total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia.

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population had a younger age structure than the non-Indigenous population. One-third (33.1 per cent) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were aged under 15 years, with just 5.4 per cent aged over 65 years. This compares to 17.9 per cent of the non-Indigenous population aged under 15 years and 17.2 per cent aged over 65 years.

“This younger age structure is the result of more babies being born and people dying younger in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population compared with that of the non-Indigenous population”, said Ms Walter.

There is little that is surprising in these figures as they continue trends that have been evident for the past decade.

It is worth exploring some of the likely policy implications:

First, the relative political salience of non-remote regions versus remote regions will continue to increase. This is significant because the levels of absolute disadvantage are most acute amongst Indigenous populations in remote Australia. Over the medium term, it raises the prospect that the national project to close the gap might be substantially achieved merely by focussing on by lifting the economic and social status of non-remote Indigenous populations.

Second, the demographic trends reinforce the already large and growing significance of mainstream programs (in education, social services, health) and institutions (criminal justice laws, corporation laws, electoral laws, land tenure laws) for the wellbeing of Indigenous citizens, thus relegating the use of Indigenous specific funding programs to niche and symbolic roles.

Third, the demographic trends, especially the differing jurisdictional trajectories, strengthen the likelihood that the Commonwealth’s determination, over the past decade, to shift policy responsibilities to the states and territories and to withdraw from an all-encompassing role in Indigenous policy, is likely to stay in place and perhaps even gain momentum. On the other hand, the extant Commonwealth footprint across the Indigenous policy domain remains significant, including in native title, social security, and health, and has been given new but limited impetus by this week’s budget decisions to increase financial support for remote housing and the national crisis of over-incarceration.

Fourth, the extraordinary youthfulness of the Indigenous population is under-appreciated and under-rated by policymakers, and represents both policy risks and opportunities with lifelong implications that currently appear to be ignored. One might surmise that since the ‘voice’ and interests of the youngest third of the Indigenous population are not easily discerned by policymakers (and perhaps even by Indigenous advocates), they are easily ignored and set aside. At the very least, this suggests that the relative importance of early childhood and parental support programs and policies for Indigenous citizens may require greater prioritisation than they presently obtain in both mainstream and Indigenous specific programs. While at least six of the 17 outcome areas in the National Partnership on Closing the Gap relate to young people, the most recent reports from the Productivity Commission describe outcomes to date as mixed (link here and here). More importantly, it is worth remembering that mere inclusion as a target says nothing about the levels of actual policy and funding commitment by governments.

Fifth, the demographic shape and dynamics of the Indigenous population, and the political and policy implications those structures produce, combine to have implications for the major national Indigenous policy institutions. In particular, the ongoing implementation of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap (link here) by all Australian governments and the Coalition of Indigenous Peaks will undoubtedly be shaped by the demographic realities in play, and may need incremental review and revision to better respond to these realities. Similarly, the proposed Indigenous Voice, if implemented, will face an extraordinarily complex and all-encompassing national policy domain, and a widening and geographically determined set of Indigenous circumstances where levels of need and disadvantage are not necessarily aligned to the weight of population numbers.

Sixth, it is worth making the point that no Australian Government appears seriously focussed on exploring the linkages and implications for policy of the rapidly changing demography of Indigenous Australia. Over the past two censuses the ABS has provided a window into what amounts to an ongoing revolution in the demographic shape of Indigenous Australia, but the response from policymakers on what this means and how they intend to respond has been determined silence.

Finally, and most obviously, the ABS figures remind us that Indigenous citizens remain a minority population in their own land. Mainstream policymakers operate within a complex institutional framework and are constrained and incentivised by multiple pressures of which demography is but one small element. In a complex polity such as Australia, successful policy reform aimed at advancing Indigenous aspirations thus requires a sophisticated strategy of alliance building, political judgment, policy realism, organisational capacity and long term national vision. Even so, success is never assured.