Thursday, 14 May 2026

The Victorian Treaty: prospects and strategies

 

This above all: to thine own self be true,

 And it must follow, as the night the day,

 Thou can’st not then be false to any man.

Hamlet, Act one, Scene three.

 

The Victorian Treaty process has had a long gestation and is slowly coming into being. For background on the years’ long process, see the document titled Journey to Gellung Warl (link here) published by the First Peoples' Assembly of Victoria in 2025. Here is the summary of the Report:

Since 2019, the First Peoples’ Assembly of Victoria has been yarning with Community across the state. This report outlines how these ideas were brought to the negotiating table and ensured progress for communities by having self-determination at the heart of Australia’s first ever Treaty. The report presents the building of the First Peoples' Assembly of Victoria, the treatymaking ecosystem, working with community to identify priorities for the first statewide treaty, negotiating treaty and getting treaty done. It concludes with an outline of what is in the statewide Treaty.

Following the unsuccessful national referendum proposing the establishment of a Voice to Parliament, it is unsurprising that the issue of a Victorian Treaty and the recent election to establish the First Peoples’ Assembly and its two subsidiary bodies is both contentious in some quarters and the subject of political debate and conflict. This political debate and tensions are likely to become more prominent in the lead up to the November Victorian election.

Wikipedia (link here) suggests that the two-party preferred vote between the Labor and Liberal parties is currently vacillating around 50%, making predictions of the ultimate winner of the November election difficult. For a deeper dive, Roy Morgan polling at the end of April (link here) provides a four-way split but also suggests that on current polling results a hung parliament is likely. Ominously for Labor, the Liberal Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has a higher approval rating than Premier Allan by a sizeable margin. Not being a psephologist, I don’t propose to chance my arm on predicting the ultimate result but mention these figures to make the point that a change of Government is possible, and that underlying shifts in sentiment across the wider electorate may mean there could be significant shifts in policy going forward whichever party emerges as the government after the November election.

This recent ABC news article (link here) provides a good assessment of the state of play and the current positioning of both the Victorian Labor Government and the Opposition in relation to the future of the Treaty.

My blog post from July 2025 on the Yoorrook Commission (link here) explores some of the strategic issues confronting both the Victorian and Commonwealth Governments as well as First Nations interests in Victoria. I recommend readers refer to it for an analysis of the deeper context in relation to the road ahead in Victoria.

With six months to the state election, the performance of the First Peoples’ Assembly and its two subsidiary bodies, Nyerna Yoorrook Telkuna and Nginma Ngainga Wara will be both closely scrutinised and may well shape future policy choices of the incoming government.

Nyerna Yoorrook Telkuna is designed to facilitate ongoing truth telling and healing regarding the history of Victoria’s First Peoples. Nginma Ngainga Wara is an accountability and oversight body which will be able to hold hearings and conduct inquiries in relation to the performance of government programs’ It will also have a role in monitoring Victoria's performance in relation to Closing the Gap.

What then are the prospects for the Victorian Treaty arrangements going forward?

My assessment is that whichever Government emerges in Victoria post the November election, the challenges and risks for First Nations interests are considerable.

If Labor wins, the risk is that the First Peoples Assembly and its subsidiary bodies get bogged down in process and micromanagement. The Closing the Gap process is fundamentally problematic from a range of perspectives (link here and link here). The reality that mainstream programs are key determinants of Indigenous well-being and interact with Indigenous specific institutions and policies in complex ways suggests that access to professional expertise and a focus on a wide range of mainstream programs will be crucial in ensuring that interactions with government and its bureaucracy are effective in driving positive outcomes for First Nations interests.

If a Liberal Government emerges, the risk is that the institutional framework negotiated meticulously over an extended period will be either dismantled or progressively degraded so as to take First Nations interests back to their starting point seven years ago.

What then is the appropriate strategy for First Nations interests?

In my view, the flaw in the strategy adopted to date by both the Victorian Labor Government and First Nations interests has been to emulate the strategies adopted by most mainstream interest groups which see governments as the source of virtually all power and authority. Consequently, the aim has (ostensibly on the part of the government) been to build a strategy around creating institutional mechanisms which facilitate the transfer or delegation of power, influence and control from government to First Peoples.

While there is always a place for a focus on persuading government to meet their commitments and act consistently with their rhetoric, for First Peoples, a more hardheaded approach is more likely to be effective in the long term. The approach I would suggest involves at a minimum (a) building internal capability and cohesion; (b) accessing non-government sources of financial and other assistance including internal resources; (c) building alliances with like-minded mainstream community interests; and (d) getting on with building a mosaic of overlapping and inter-woven Indigenous institutions focussed on providing community benefits and operating outside the direct reach of government influence.

In other words, building institutions and organisations that are based on community control, or self-determination, independently of governments, and the insidious influence they can exert through control of funding and policy. The stronger and more self-sufficient community controlled and self-determining organizations can become, the more effective they will be in advocating for and protecting First Peoples interests, and as a side-effect, the more capacity they will have to bend governments to their will rather than the reverse as is the case at present.

Autonomy and real self-determination are not to be found in the benevolence and generosity of governments however well-intentioned they appear to be. Real influence and freedom of action require internal cohesion and the capability to engage over a sustained period with all and sundry (including governments) from a position of strength.

To be clear, I am not arguing that First Peoples in Victoria should walk away from the significant political and institutional gains they have made to date, but there is a very high risk that they will need a fallback strategy within a very few years, and perhaps sooner. In todays world, only a naïve optimist can adopt the Panglossian assumption that governments will invariably pursue the public interest and deliver on their rhetoric and commitments.

The strategy I am suggesting would, in a best-case scenario, strengthen the influence of Indigenous interests within the current treaty framework, and in the worst case, where the current framework is dismantled, provide a means to maximise their medium- and long-term interests even so.

My argument can perhaps be summarised as follows.

In discussions regarding self-determination, one often hears the slogan ‘Nothing about us without us’. The slogan’s internal echo is rhetorically and intuitively effective. However, in most cases its use implicitly assumes that governments are in the driver’s seat and are shaping and determining outcomes. Such an assumption is a concession that undermines real autonomy.

In my humble opinion, a better formulation of an appropriate slogan — to repurpose a classical Chinese saying on leadership (after Laozi, Tao Te Ching, Chapter 17) — would be:

Of a great achievement, people say, we did this ourselves.

The corollary of course is that if you wish to be certain of achieving self-determination, there is no point in relying on governments.

 

14 May 2026

 

 

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