From the Australian Bureau of Statistics (link
here):
Australia's Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander population has reached 984,000 or 3.8 per cent of the
total Australian population,
according to the latest population figures released by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS).
ABS
Demography Director Emily Walter said that over the five years to June 2021,
the Aboriginal and Torres Strait
Islander population increased by 23.2 per cent, or 185,600 people.
"This
is higher than the 5.5 per cent increase for the non-Indigenous population over
the same period" said Ms Walter. “We have seen similar increases in the
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population between past Censuses, and
they are partly explained by changing identification over time.”
While
Victoria was the fastest growing state
or territory for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait population with an increase
of 36.2 per cent, it remains the jurisdiction with the lowest proportion of
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (1.2 per cent). The Northern
Territory had the highest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
people relative to its total population size (30.8 per cent).
New
South Wales had the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population
(339,500 people), followed by Queensland (273,200 people) and Western Australia
(120,000 people). These three states comprised almost three-quarters of the
total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia.
The
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population had a younger age structure
than the non-Indigenous population. One-third
(33.1 per cent) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were aged under
15 years, with just 5.4 per cent aged over 65 years. This compares to 17.9
per cent of the non-Indigenous population aged under 15 years and 17.2 per cent
aged over 65 years.
“This
younger age structure is the result of more babies being born and people dying
younger in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population compared with
that of the non-Indigenous population”, said Ms Walter.
There is little that is surprising in these figures as they
continue trends that have been evident for the past decade.
It is worth exploring some of the likely policy
implications:
First, the relative
political salience of non-remote regions versus remote regions will continue to
increase. This is significant because the levels of absolute disadvantage are
most acute amongst Indigenous populations in remote Australia. Over the medium
term, it raises the prospect that the national project to close the gap might
be substantially achieved merely by focussing on by lifting the economic and
social status of non-remote Indigenous populations.
Second, the
demographic trends reinforce the already large and growing significance of
mainstream programs (in education, social services, health) and institutions (criminal
justice laws, corporation laws, electoral laws, land tenure laws) for the wellbeing
of Indigenous citizens, thus relegating the use of Indigenous specific funding
programs to niche and symbolic roles.
Third, the demographic
trends, especially the differing jurisdictional trajectories, strengthen the likelihood
that the Commonwealth’s determination, over the past decade, to shift policy
responsibilities to the states and territories and to withdraw from an all-encompassing
role in Indigenous policy, is likely to stay in place and perhaps even gain
momentum. On the other hand, the extant Commonwealth footprint across
the Indigenous policy domain remains significant, including in native title,
social security, and health, and has been given new but limited impetus by this
week’s budget decisions to increase financial support for remote housing and the
national crisis of over-incarceration.
Fourth, the
extraordinary youthfulness of the Indigenous population is under-appreciated
and under-rated by policymakers, and represents both policy risks and
opportunities with lifelong implications that currently appear to be ignored. One
might surmise that since the ‘voice’ and interests of the youngest third of the
Indigenous population are not easily discerned by policymakers (and perhaps
even by Indigenous advocates), they are easily ignored and set aside. At the very
least, this suggests that the relative importance of early childhood and parental
support programs and policies for Indigenous citizens may require greater
prioritisation than they presently obtain in both mainstream and Indigenous
specific programs. While at least six of the 17 outcome areas in the National Partnership
on Closing the Gap relate to young people, the most recent reports from the Productivity
Commission describe outcomes to date as mixed (link here
and here).
More importantly, it is worth remembering that mere inclusion as a target says
nothing about the levels of actual policy and funding commitment by governments.
Fifth, the demographic
shape and dynamics of the Indigenous population, and the political and policy implications
those structures produce, combine to have implications for the major national Indigenous
policy institutions. In particular, the ongoing implementation of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap (link here) by
all Australian governments and the Coalition of Indigenous Peaks will
undoubtedly be shaped by the demographic realities in play, and may need incremental
review and revision to better respond to these realities. Similarly, the
proposed Indigenous Voice, if
implemented, will face an extraordinarily complex and all-encompassing national
policy domain, and a widening and geographically determined set of Indigenous
circumstances where levels of need and disadvantage are not necessarily aligned
to the weight of population numbers.
Sixth, it
is worth making the point that no Australian Government appears seriously focussed
on exploring the linkages and implications for policy of the rapidly changing demography
of Indigenous Australia. Over the past two censuses the ABS has provided a
window into what amounts to an ongoing revolution in the demographic shape of Indigenous
Australia, but the response from policymakers on what this means and how they
intend to respond has been determined silence.
Finally, and
most obviously, the ABS figures remind us that Indigenous citizens remain a
minority population in their own land. Mainstream policymakers operate within a
complex institutional framework and are constrained and incentivised by
multiple pressures of which demography is but one small element. In a complex
polity such as Australia, successful policy reform aimed at advancing Indigenous
aspirations thus requires a sophisticated strategy of alliance building,
political judgment, policy realism, organisational capacity and long term national
vision. Even so, success is never assured.
