Defer no time, delays have
dangerous ends
1 Henry IV, Act 3, scene 2.
This post is designed to explore a number of the most
salient policy implications for Indigenous policy arising from the results of
the 2022 election.
In his victory speech last night, Anthony Albanese made two
significant points. He emphasised the incoming Government’s commitment to implementing
the Uluru Statement, and explicitly mentioned Labor’s intention to entrench it
in the Constitution. Second he identified Linda Burney as the incoming Indigenous
Affairs Minister. Prior to the election, Burney was Shadow Minister for
Families and Social Services, as well as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians.
We can assume she will likely be given both posts, which is an extraordinarily
heavy workload. If so, it seems likely (but not certain) that Senator Patrick
Dodson would take on his former shadow roles as Assistant Minister for
Reconciliation and Assistant Minister for Constitutional Recognition of
Indigenous Australians.
The former Minister Ken Wyatt lost his seat of Hasluck with
a swing against him of over 10 percent; a swing consistent with the overall
swing against the former Government in WA. This will mean that the Opposition
will need to choose a new Shadow Minister who is unlikely to be Indigenous and
will not have the benefit of the networks and knowledge of the issues that
Wyatt built over his career and as Minister. Somewhat paradoxically, in my view
this increases the likelihood that the Opposition will adopt a much more
antagonistic and aggressive approach to the Labor Government’s policies in this
area since it is always easier to find flaws and seek to knock down a policy
rather than find constructive ways to make it work. One of the dynamics that
has been in play in recent years has been the propensity for Indigenous MPs on
all sides to effectively pull their punches in relation to their opposite
numbers.
As for Wyatt’s legacy, I struggle to identify major reforms
or achievements. The National Agreement on Closing the Gap is potentially an
extraordinary vehicle for addressing structural inequity between Indigenous and
mainstream Australia, but the Commonwealth Implementation Plan and associated financial
commitments have been entirely underwhelming. So too have been the
Implementation Plans of the states and territories; yet the Commonwealth seems
oblivious to their shortcomings. He continued the push on Indigenous
procurement. This is perhaps the former Government’s most tangible success,
although I worry that the levels of so-called ‘black cladding’ (link
here) are much more significant than is generally realised. He dropped the
ball on issues his predecessor prioritised (albeit more rhetorically than
substantively) such as school attendance and high sugar drinks in remote stores;
did virtually nothing to address the longstanding and worsening housing crisis
in remote Australia; made no progress in making native title a more effective
instrument for Indigenous economic and social development; and actively
continued the Commonwealth retreat from Indigenous social policy across the board
in favour of the states and territories. This record is a 180 degree turn from
the expectations of the Australian people when they voted overwhelmingly to
give the Commonwealth concurrent responsibilities with the states in relation
to Aboriginal affairs in the 1967 Referendum.
On the Voice and constitutional recognition, Wyatt
procrastinated and prevaricated, clearly lacking influence and backing within
the Government at the most senior levels. It was only during the recent
election campaign that the Prime Minister finally came clean, five long years
after the Uluru Statement was delivered, and explicitly ruled out any intention
of entrenching the Voice in the Constitution (link
here).
For Labor, while the commitment to action on the Uluru Statement
is welcome, there is an enormous amount of work to be done to build broad based
momentum across the community and to design and sequence the detailed
proposals. My view is that Labor would be wise to ‘ride the wave’ that brought
it to government and push forward towards a referendum within six months. For
an alternative view, see this article in The Conversation (link
here). Designing the legislation for a Voice and establishing the proposed Makarrata
Commission will not be straightforward, and will require detailed consultation
and engagement with both First Nations and the wider community. While these
processes do not need to be finalised before a referendum, the Government would
be wise to have developed and published a clear outline of how it sees the Voice
and the Makarrata Commission operating before the referendum takes place.
There will never be
a perfect or risk free time to take this issue forward to a referendum.
Currently, there is a sense of hope and optimism in the community on these
issues, and the fact that six of the states and territories have Labor Governments
will mean that any state based opposition campaigns will have less legitimacy
and more limited access to resources. Delay adds risk, both because the new Government’s
policy agenda becomes more crowded and complex, and as it allows further time
for opponents to organise.
Notwithstanding the strategic importance of a
constitutionally recognised Voice to Parliament, the administration of the Indigenous
Australians portfolio is about more than one issue.
Last week, on 18 May 2022, Mike Keating posted a short
article on the Pearls and Irritations web site (link
here) pointing out the implications across the policy spectrum of the inevitable
ongoing constraints on policy reform arising from the current mismatch between
the Government’s underlying revenue base and the expenditure needs and
expectations of the community. In particular, he laid out in the starkest terms
the extraordinary magnitude and regressive nature of the most recent tax
reforms proposed by the former Government and legislated with Labor support. His
analysis is in my view absolutely correct. His proposed solution is for the Government
to initiate a number of independent reviews to lay out the problem and develop
a reform agenda acceptable to the community. He notes that this will take time
and will delay the initiation of essential reforms (or worse still require the incremental
unwinding of previous reforms such as the NDIS). This issue will impact every
policy sector, but given the extent of Indigenous disadvantage and need, particularly
in remote Australia, the consequences in the Indigenous policy space are likely
to be dire. Mike Keatings rational logic is persuasive, but ignores the decades
of policy exclusion meted out to Indigenous citizens. A determined Government
would find a way through.
Nevertheless, having won a first term, the ‘hard heads’ within
the new Labor Government will be focussed above all else on setting up the political
strategy and narrative for the next election in around three years. This will
involve a forensic focus on delivering their commitments, but also a strong
push for fiscal discipline that will enable Labor to point to progress in clawing
back the substantial deficit they have inherited. In this context, proposals
for additional public investment will be rigorously scrutinised and those without
a strong political rationale will likely be deferred or sidelined. Given the comparatively
weak political influence of Indigenous interests, there is a strong likelihood
that the new Government will focus primarily on delivering the Uluru Statement
to the exclusion of other priorities across the Indigenous policy domain. Such
an outcome would in my view be both a policy and political mistake. It would make
the job of the yet to be established Voice to Parliament harder, decrease First
Nations citizens already low trust in governments,
and exacerbate the negative economic, social and health outcomes that have
enduring impacts on the life opportunities of so many First Nations citizens.
One lesson to be drawn from the experience of Minister
Wyatt in the former Government is that an Indigenous Minister can be sidelined
or ignored if he is unable to point to significant and sustained political
pressure being applied. Ministers in every portfolio are always under
incredible pressure to hold fast to the Government’s narrative, and Indigenous ministers
are no exception. Indeed, there is an incentive for Prime Ministers and Governments
to use Indigenous ministers as a protective heat shield against pressure from
the Indigenous community, rather than as a portal to better engagement with First
Nations. The fact that a Government has appointed an experienced and competent Indigenous
leader as a Minister does not preclude the necessity for Indigenous interests to
implement robust lobbying and advocacy on key issues.
In these circumstances, it is in my view incumbent on the national
Indigenous leadership to work together to develop a five or ten year set of
policy priorities that focus on multiple objectives simultaneously. Their chosen
priorities should refine, prioritise and sequence core policy aspirations; extend
beyond Indigenous specific policy and program measures to include mainstream
measures that will benefit First Nations citizens; and identify structural
changes that do not require substantial fiscal investments. Importantly, they
should invest in strengthening Indigenous interests’ capability to exert coordinated
political pressure in sustained and targeted ways across all jurisdictions of
the federation.
The fracturing of the major parties primary votes, the
emergence of a third force in the electorate comprised of green and teal voters,
and the resultant changes to the composition of Parliament reinforces the
importance of distinguishing between a Voice to Parliament and the need for Indigenous
interests to also build a capability to lobby and influence governments at both
national and state/territory levels. More succinctly: Governments are not
Parliaments; yet both are crucial in policy advocacy. Neither a Voice to
Parliament nor a Peak Body focussed on Governments will be entirely effective
on its own, and ideally Indigenous advocacy in each forum will work off similar
and broadly coordinated policy agendas.
The new Labor Government appears set on delivering the major
and long overdue structural reforms laid out in the Uluru Statement for the
Heart. These reforms will simultaneously deliver on the aspirations of First
Nations and accrue significant benefits for the wider Australian community derived
from more inclusive treatment of First Nations. However, in the Indigenous policy
domain, the new Government faces numerous significant challenges ahead
including addressing structural exclusion, income and wealth inequalities; disparities
in health and housing opportunities; over-representation in the criminal
justice system; extraordinary levels of out of home care for indigenous
children; and extraordinarily low levels of educational outcomes (to name just
some of the more pressing issues). The failure to effectively resource and
implement the pathbreaking National Agreement on Closing the Gap and to make
substantive progress to close the enormous social, economic and health disparities
between Indigenous and mainstream citizens remains a weeping sore on our nation’s
body politic.
Notwithstanding the commitments made to date by the new Government,
it will need to find a way to widen its policy agenda and focus policy
attention on the structural constraints impacting the most disadvantaged
segments of the Australian community. The new Government will do a better job
of delivering on First Nations aspirations if it is honest with the Indigenous and
mainstream communities about the policy trade-offs it makes, focusses attention
on implementation as well as policy rhetoric, and is pushed hard and held to
account by Indigenous interests and their allies.
Addendum 23 May 2022
A reader has pointed to the possibility that incoming Senator Jacinta Price (link here) might be appointed Shadow Minister. On reflection, this seems a strong possibility. I also commend Jon Altman's comment on this post to readers.